Dirt Road Driver's Training
Published
by Terry Rubenthaler on Friday, September 5, 2025
in
Electric Reliability
I learned to drive on the dirt roads of central Nebraska, and there were important instructions from my dad. Don’t overcorrect, don’t speed, and always wear your seat belt or bad things will happen.
I recently thought of these instructions when I heard an analogy from a colleague that perfectly sums up the current state of electric grid reliability in this country. It’s like we are driving down a dirt road with no seat belts, going 90 miles an hour, and assuming nothing bad will happen since nothing bad has happened yet. Let me explain.
A few years ago, our electric grid had sufficient power supply to meet typical demand, plus about 20% of reserve power available to come online quickly when needed. If we had an unusual heat wave or a cold snap came, no one thought twice about it. If the grid needed extra power, the reserve plants kicked in, and that was it.
Today is very different. Traditional power plants, such as coal and gas, are closing as the industry shifts to renewables. The problem is that we don’t have enough renewables built yet. Plus, they aren’t reliable enough to fill the gap caused by the closures. That means that our reserve power, or the seat belt in the case of my analogy, isn’t there to protect us when demand soars.
An example of this came on June 23. One of our grid operators, MISO*, had reserves drop to as low as 1%. Part of that was due to plant closures. However, another contributing factor was that 10 GW of renewables began shutting down as the sun set and winds died off. That’s enough electricity to power roughly 7.5 million homes, and just when we needed them the most, those weather-dependent power sources became anything but dependable.
As a result, utilities throughout our region came very close to having to ask customers to reduce power consumption in an effort to avoid rolling blackouts. Why? Because if the supply isn’t available to meet the demand, the grid can collapse. Blackouts prevent a collapse.
In other words, we came very close to flying off that dirt road on that day.
Because of this, I want to make sure you are prepared for what may happen:
- If we ask you to reduce your power consumption to avoid blackouts, it’s because our grid operator is requiring utilities to do it. It won’t be just us, and it’s the last-ditch effort after all other measures have been taken.
- MEC will implement our load control programs to further reduce the strain.
- There may be emergency instances when there is no time to make a public appeal.
- Blackouts can be as short as 15 minutes but will be as long as required by the grid operator to avoid a collapse. We will roll through our system as instructed, so not every customer may experience one.
Now for some good news. The U.S. Department of Energy recently issued a Resource Adequacy Report that painted a very real picture of electric reliability. It found that if we continue on this course, the risk of blackouts could increase by over 30 times by 2030, despite the forecasted new generation sources.
While the report is definitely alarming, it indicates that this issue is finally receiving serious attention. I’m optimistic that we’re on the brink of positive change, particularly a pause in closures, along with policy changes that will enable the industry to build more electric generation without the legislative and permitting shackles we experience today. Time will tell.
I want to close by emphasizing that this does not mean that I think our grid should be run entirely by fossil fuels.
Renewables play an important role in creating a healthy, reliable grid. In fact, wind turbines in Michigan’s thumb helped keep Michigan’s lights on during a recent polar vortex. However, I hope we don’t someday find ourselves sitting in the dark, wondering how this happened. It’s time for us to slow down and put on our seat belts just like Dad said.
*A grid operator is an independent third-party responsible for managing the grid and ensuring it has enough supply to meet demand. Grid operators decide which power plants run and when.